Why Waiting to Buy Young Guns Rookie Cards Can Save You Money

Every year when a new Upper Deck Series 1, Series 2, or Extended release hits the market, the hobby goes through the same cycle. Boxes get ripped. The top Young Guns rookie hits eBay.Collectors scramble to buy the first copies available.

And almost every year, those early prices turn out to be unsustainably high.

The latest example comes from 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2, where one of the biggest chase rookies is Matthew Schaefer. Early listings have been strong as collectors rush to get their hands on one of the top prospects in hockey.

But if hobby history has taught us anything, it’s this:

Buying ultra-modern rookies immediately after release is almost always the most expensive time to buy them.

For collectors who are patient, the smarter play is often waiting three to six months after release.

The Rookie Release Hype Cycle

When a flagship product like Upper Deck Series 1, Series 2, or Extended launches, supply of the rookie cards is actually very limited at first.

During the first week:

• Breakers are opening the first cases

• Early pulls hit eBay

• Buyers compete to be the first to own the rookie

This creates a temporary supply shortage combined with peak demand.

Collectors aren’t just paying for the card — they’re paying for speed and hype.

Once the initial wave passes, supply begins to rise quickly as more boxes are opened and more collectors list their pulls.

That’s when prices begin to normalize.

Shane Wright: A Textbook Example of the Rookie Price Cycle

A great example of this pattern is Shane Wright’s 2022 Upper Deck Young Guns (#475). When Wright’s rookie card first hit the market, excitement around the highly anticipated prospect pushed early prices higher. Early sales averaged around $37 per card as collectors rushed to acquire copies.

But as more product was opened and additional cards entered the market, prices began to settle. By late September, sales had dropped to around $19 per card, representing a decline of roughly 42% from the early market average.

For collectors who waited, the exact same card eventually became available for nearly half the early market price.

Image Source: Market Movers

Even Connor Bedard Followed the Same Pattern

Some collectors might assume this trend doesn’t apply to generational players.

However, Connor Bedard’s 2023-24 Upper Deck Young Guns (#451) shows that even the most hyped rookies can experience early price corrections. When the product first released, Bedard’s Young Guns averaged around $578 as collectors rushed to secure copies of the most anticipated NHL rookie since Connor McDavid.

But as supply increased, prices began to stabilize. By August, recent sales had fallen closer to $330, representing a drop of roughly 43% from the early market highs. Even with one of the most exciting rookies in modern hockey, the same pattern appeared once supply entered the market.

Image Source: Market Movers

Trevor Zegras: When Rookie Hype Meets Long-Term Supply

Another example of the rookie hype cycle is Trevor Zegras’ 2021 Upper Deck Young Guns (#232). When Zegras’ rookie card first released, excitement surrounding his highlight-reel skill pushed early prices higher. Early sales averaged around $47 per card.

But as the months passed and supply continued to increase, the market gradually corrected. Roughly eight months after release, recent sales had dropped to around $9, representing a decline of roughly 79% from the early market average.

While Zegras remains an exciting player, this example highlights how early hype can create prices that simply aren’t sustainable long term.

Image Source: Market Movers

Macklin Celebrini: Another Modern Rookie Correction

The most recent example of the rookie hype cycle is Macklin Celebrini’s 2024 Upper Deck Young Guns (#451). Celebrini entered the hobby with enormous excitement as the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and collectors immediately began chasing his Young Guns rookie.

Early sales averaged around $158 per card.

As more product was opened and more copies entered the market, prices began to settle. Recent sales have dropped to around $96, representing roughly a 39% decline from the early market average.

Once again, the same pattern appeared:

Early hype → Increased supply → Price correction

Image Source: Market Movers

Young Guns Rookie Price Drops: Real Market Data

Looking across multiple recent releases, the pattern becomes clear.

Player	Early Avg Price	Later Price	Price Change
Shane Wright	$37	$19	-42%
Connor Bedard	$578	$330	-43%
Trevor Zegras	$47	$9	-79%
Macklin Celebrini	$158	$96	-39%
Matthew Schaefer	$300+	TBD	TBD

Across multiple releases and players — including generational talents like Connor Bedard — the data shows the same pattern:

rookie prices tend to peak early and decline as supply enters the market.

Why This Matters for Matthew Schaefer

This brings us back to the newest rookie chase card from Upper Deck Series 2: Matthew Schaefer. Right now, Schaefer’s Young Guns #451 is still in the release hype phase, where demand is high and supply is limited.

In fact, during the early days following the release, Schaefer’s Young Guns has already been selling for over $300, as collectors rush to secure one of the most anticipated rookie cards in the product.

But if hobby history repeats itself, the same pattern seen with Wright, Zegras, Bedard, and Celebrini could eventually impact the Schaefer market as well. As more boxes are opened and more Young Guns hit the market — and as grading submissions begin returning — supply will continue to increase.

For collectors willing to wait, that increased supply often leads to better buying opportunities.

The Smart Collector Strategy

For ultra-modern rookies, patience is often the smartest move.

Waiting three to six months after release typically allows the market to stabilize after the initial hype cycle.

Instead of paying peak release prices, collectors often find themselves buying the exact same card at a much more reasonable price.

In the hobby, timing can matter just as much as the player on the card — and sometimes even more than the hype surrounding them.